![]() ![]() “Incipient insurgency” doesn’t mean “inevitable insurgency.” We are still in the very early phase of this rampage-a “pre-McVeigh moment,” as Kilcullen puts it. Today’s politics and social tensions are dominated by three fears: fear of other social groups, fear that those other groups are encroaching on one’s territory, and fear that the state no longer has the ability to protect the people. “Every civil war and insurgency of the last 50 years has been driven by fear,” Kilcullen told me. ![]() He cites Stathis Kalyvas’ book The Logic of Violence in Civil War as observing that fear, not hate, drives the worst atrocities. Kilcullen sees a pattern similar to the patterns that precipitated insurgencies in Colombia, Libya, and Iraq.
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